NASCAR championship scenarios, 5 in the Chase for the Nextel Cup.
TSN.ca Staff
11/18/2004
Heading into Sunday's season ending NASCAR event at Homestead-Miami Speedway, five drivers are still in the running for the inaugural NASCAR Nextel Cup championship.
Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Mark Martin are separated by just 82 points, making it the closest margin in NASCAR history with one race remaining. The closest finish for the championship was 1992 when the late Alan Kulwicki edged Bill Elliott by just 10 points.
This is also the second-highest number of drivers who are eligible to win the title with one race remaining since 1992 when six drivers were separated by just 113 points.
While there are a number of championship-winning scenarios, winning Sunday's race (worth 180 points) and earning all 10 bonus points available will go a long way in crowing the 2004 champion.
Below are the drivers eligible to win the 2004 championship and their chances:
Kurt Busch (Leader: 6,346 points) - He will win the championship if he wins the race. He can also win the championship if he finishes second and earns five bonus points for leading at least one lap.
"We need to go out and attack the race track this weekend, to lead laps and to make sure that we do our job at the end of the race."
Jimmie Johnson (18 points back) - He can win the championship if he wins the race and leads the most laps (for the maximum 190 points), and Busch finishes second without leading a lap, or finishes third but doesn't lead the most laps, or finishes fourth or lower. However, if Busch wins the race without leading the most laps, and Johnson finishes second, then Johnson would win the championship by two points. Johnson would also win the title if all five drivers finish in a tie for first (see below).
"Kurt is in the lead, Jeff (Gordon) is right behind us. You're going to have to, you know, finish first or second to win this championship in my eyes."
Jeff Gordon (21 points back) - He can win the championship if he wins the race and accrues the maximum 10 bonus points. Busch also must finish third or lower and not lead a lap, or finish fourth or lower and lead a lap, or finish fifth or lower and lead the most laps.
"This is one race for the championship, and we'll have a 'Go for broke' attitude. We have nothing to lose. We'll give it everything we've got and hope to come out on top. We have to win."
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (72 points back) - He can win the championship if he wins the race and accrues the maximum 10 bonus points. He also needs Busch to finish 15th or lower and not lead a lap, Johnson to finish 10th or lower and not lead a lap and Gordon to finish ninth or lower and not lead a lap.
"We dug ourselves a pretty big hole (last weekend), and it will be difficult to climb out and still win this championship. We're going to have to be the best team at Homestead as well as the luckiest."
Mark Martin (82 points back) - He can win the championship if he wins the race and accrues the maximum 10 bonus points. He also needs Busch to finish 19th or lower and not lead a lap, Johnson to finish 13th or lower and not lead a lap and Gordon to finish 12th or lower and not lead a lap. Earnhardt Jr.'s finish wouldn't matter as long as he doesn't lead a lap. If Martin wins the race and Earnhardt Jr. finishes second and leads the most laps, the two would be tied and Earnhardt Jr. would win the tiebreaker based on the number of wins in 2004.
"We really like our chances. We are 82 out, but we still have a shot. It really doesn't matter, because we are going there to try and win the thing and that's really all we can do."
There is also the possibility of a five way tie for the championship.
This would happen if Martin wins the race, but doesn't lead the most laps; Earnhardt Jr. finishes second and leads a lap or finishes third and leads the most laps; Gordon finishes 13th; Johnson finishes 14th and Busch finishes 20th.
(COULD YOU IMAGINE!! GM.)
Each driver would finish with 6,449 points. The tiebreaker then would be number of 2004 wins:
* Johnson - eight wins
* Earnhardt Jr - six wins
* Gordon - five wins
* Busch - three wins
* Martin - one win
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I think that to see Mark Martin up there able to win is an awesome job on his part.
Who do you think will win?
Greasemonkey.
I think that to see Mark Martin up there able to win is an awesome job on his part.
Who do you think will win?
Greasemonkey.
I agree with you GM, I'd like to see Mark win, but even though Rubberhead isn't one of my favorites, he is a good driver, he's got my vote on this one!
Mark for the win, Kurt for the championship!
Jimmie's been hot, he could easily end up in the front by the end of the day, and you can never count Jeff out! I think Mark & Jr. pretty much need a miracle?
Of the non-contenders, I'll be pulling for Rudd, he did well in qualifying, as well as Schrader/Edwards/Vickers/Rusty/Marlin, did I leave anyone out? 🙂
Just had a PM saying they knew who I was voting for, because there was a vote for Jimmy Johnson. I had to tell them they were wrong, I tried to vote for 4 drivers, but the poll only allows you to vote once.
You see.......... I'm voting for anyone who beats Jeff Gordon!!
(that should heat things up!)
Greasemonkey.
I will tell you they left the door open for Jeff Gorden to take his 5th Championship. He at many times looked like he was going to fall back in the points but some how managed to come back and stay in striking range. He is my pick. I would have love to see Mark Martin win it as he has been in second so many times and no Championships under his belt and he is one of if not the most cleanest drivers out there.
Whow! What a race! I sat on the edge of my seat for most of the day. It surely was exciting from a fans perspective, IMHO! Lot's of action & emotion! We didn't know who the 2004 champion was to be, until the final laps???
I think NASCAR achieved what they set out to do? At first I didn't think much of the new rules, but now I think it's exciting for the fans, good for the sponsors, good for the sport, and all the teams knew the rules starting the season.
As I mentioned earlier, I'm not a big Kurt Busch fan, but I gained a little more respect for him today when he owned up to making some big mistakes earlier in his career. He showed a lot of determination today, and I think most would agree, he is a talented driver.
Congratulations Kurt on your 2004 Championship!